Reflections by Nik Nanos
Disclaimer: The summaries and interpretations provided on this page are unofficial and have not been reviewed, endorsed, or approved by the Canada School of Public Service (CSPS).
Summary
- Nik Nanos is one of Canada’s most consequential pollsters with three decades of experience observing Canadian society and public opinion
- He was born in Trenton, Ontario, a small town where everyone knew each other, and grew up in a close-knit community environment
- Both of his parents were born in Greece, with his father being a refugee who fled the Greek Civil War after World War II
- His father arrived in Canada as a teenager unable to read or write English but was exceptionally skilled at mental mathematics
- When Nanos was 13 years old, his father died suddenly of a heart attack at age 46, leaving behind a single mother and two young sons
- The family moved to Oshawa where Nanos attended high school before going to Queen’s University to study Political Studies
- While at university, he took courses in Canadian politics, economic history, international relations, and quantitative survey methods
- His entry into polling happened when his father’s friend asked him to review a polling proposal for a political campaign
- Instead of recommending the Toronto firm, Nanos offered to do the polling work himself for $10,000 while still a university student
- He had originally planned to become a lawyer and had written his LSAT, but decided to pursue the polling opportunity instead
- Telling his traditional Greek mother that he wasn’t going to law school was extremely difficult, as she worried about drugs, women, or academic failure
- His mother struggled to understand what being a “consultant” meant and questioned why he couldn’t pursue traditional professions like law, teaching, or medicine
- For the first ten years of his company, family members would suggest he work in restaurants because they didn’t understand his business
- Despite his father’s limited formal education, the importance of university education was strongly emphasized in his household
- His first major professional test came during the 1988 federal election when he was hired to poll the race involving Flora MacDonald
- Flora MacDonald was a distinguished Progressive Conservative cabinet minister and major figure in Canadian politics who mentored many women politicians
- Nanos’s poll showed that MacDonald would likely lose to Liberal candidate Peter Milliken, despite the PC party being expected to win nationally
- The media client was skeptical that such a prominent politician could lose to what they described as “some bookish lawyer who reads Hansard”
- On election night, Nanos worried he might have “the shortest career in polling history” but his prediction proved accurate when MacDonald lost
- This experience taught him the fundamental lesson that scientific polling requires focusing on the data regardless of personal views or intuition
- A scientific survey must be repeatable, meaning other researchers should be able to replicate the methodology and achieve the same results
- Scientific polling requires random selection rather than volunteers, because people who want to participate in surveys may not be representative
- Quality polling involves systematic attention to every step of the research process, similar to using quality ingredients and consistent technique in cooking
- The margin of error (typically 19 times out of 20, plus or minus 3.1 percentage points) indicates the range of possible results, not the quality of the survey
- Survey quality depends more on question design, sampling strategy, and methodological rigor than on the mathematical margin of error
- Good survey questions require careful consideration of both the wording and the order in which questions are asked to avoid bias
Actionable Advice
- Focus on developing strong mathematical and analytical skills as they can provide a foundation for various career opportunities
- Be open to unexpected career paths that may emerge from your studies and personal connections
- When conducting research or analysis, prioritize data and scientific methodology over personal opinions or intuition
- If designing surveys, use random selection rather than volunteers to ensure representative results
- Pay systematic attention to every step of your research process to maintain quality and consistency
- Consider question order and context when designing surveys to avoid introducing bias into responses
- Don't rely solely on margin of error statistics to judge survey quality - examine methodology and question design instead
- When evaluating research proposals or studies, focus on repeatability and scientific rigor as key quality indicators
- Be prepared to stand by your data and methodology even when results contradict expectations or popular opinion
- Build connections within your field of study as they may lead to unexpected professional opportunities