The Future of Aging
Disclaimer: The summaries and interpretations provided on this page are unofficial and have not been reviewed, endorsed, or approved by the Canada School of Public Service (CSPS).
Summary
- Two-thirds of all people in human history who have ever lived past 65 years old are alive today, making longevity a rare and recent phenomenon in human experience.
- In the 1950s, most people died within three to five years after becoming old, and nearly all current institutions were designed based on this short post-retirement lifespan paradigm.
- Current generations are living approximately 10 years longer than their parents’ generation and nearly 20 years longer than their grandparents’ generation.
- Some futurists predict that children born today could live past 150 years, while other longevity scientists believe humanity is entering an era of longevity escape velocity where each year alive adds 1.1 years to life expectancy.
- Experts predict that conventional definitions of young and old, unchanged since the 1950s, will become obsolete by 2030, largely driven by millennials turning 50 at that time.
- The combined purchasing power of the global population over 50 years old would represent the third largest economy in the world after China and the United States, yet institutions remain designed for outdated demographic models.
- In 2025, Canada enters the category of super-aged society, defined as having more than 20 percent of the population over 65 years old, joining approximately 40 other countries in this unprecedented demographic status.
- Throughout 99.9 percent of human history, most people did not survive past 20 to 25 years of age, meaning human biology and social constructs were never designed for current longevity levels.
- The presentation draws from research conducted while the speaker worked as the first futurist in home care and seniors care in Canada with SE Health, culminating in a book called The Future of Aging.
- The futures methodology involves starting with possible future scenarios and working backwards to determine current policy needs, rather than projecting forward from today’s conditions to predict future demand.
- Traditional planning for demographic shifts focuses on predicting increased volume and demand for services based on current conditions, then creating new supply to absorb that demand.
- Futurist planning examines all possible ways society may emerge given various drivers, then identifies policies needed today to align with preferred futures or avoid undesirable outcomes.
- Aging is occurring on an exponential curve that doesn’t feel dramatic within individual 70 to 80 year lifespans, but represents unprecedented growth when viewed across human history.
- The research collected over 350 signals rather than trends, with signals representing emerging patterns not yet fully manifested, which coalesced into five major themes.
- The five themes identified were aging and communities including built environment, health care, technology, the economy of aging and labor force participation, and the identity of aging.
- The identity of aging chapter, written as chapter five, should have been chapter one because it underpins all other themes and represents a fundamental shift in how society views older adults.
- Ageism will undergo a major societal reckoning similar to how racism and sexism have evolved, though this transformation is still emerging and varies globally with some places moving backwards.
- The City of Toronto created a campaign featuring fake aging cream to highlight workplace ageism, revealing that 41 percent of older adult Canadians report feeling ignored.
- Research identified four major shifts in the identity of aging including moving from reflection on late life to multiple personal reinventions throughout older age.
- Another shift involves moving from knowledge accumulation as a goal in itself to recognizing the wisdom of elders as creating massive societal value, drawing from Indigenous populations worldwide.
- Sexuality among older adults is experiencing emancipation after multiple generations of trauma around not enacting one’s sexual identity.
- The final identity shift involves moving from goals of avoiding death to having power and agency over what end of life looks like from beginning to end.
- In the Netherlands in 2017, a motivational speaker named Emile Ratelband petitioned the government to allow people to legally change their age, arguing he could change gender and name but not age despite not feeling or being biologically 69 years old.
- The City of Boston launched an Age Strong campaign to establish a different identity for aging through imagery, language, and playfulness about what it means to be an age-strong city.
- The methodology involved partnering with research and design firms to let data tell the story rather than imposing predetermined topics of investigation on the research.
Actionable Advice
- Adopt a futures mindset by starting with possible future scenarios and working backwards to determine what policies are needed today, rather than simply projecting current trends forward.
- Examine your organization's institutions and policies to identify which ones are still based on the 1950s paradigm of short post-retirement lifespans and redesign them for longer-lived populations.
- Recognize the economic power of the over-50 population as a major market force equivalent to the third largest global economy and adjust business strategies accordingly.
- Challenge ageist assumptions in your workplace and community by questioning imagery, language, and policies that marginalize or stereotype older adults.
- Consider how to harness the wisdom and accumulated knowledge of older workers as valuable assets rather than viewing aging solely as knowledge accumulation.
- Reimagine physical spaces and built environments to support people who will live and remain active much longer than previous generations.
- Develop policies that give older adults more power and agency over their end-of-life decisions and experiences rather than focusing solely on avoiding death.
- Create inclusive campaigns and communications that portray aging with diverse, positive imagery rather than relying on stereotypical representations.
- Examine how your organization can support multiple personal reinventions throughout older age rather than treating retirement as a single transition to reflection.
- Consider how longevity escape velocity and dramatically extended lifespans might require completely new frameworks for career planning, education, and social programs.
- Collect and analyze signals of emerging change in aging rather than only responding to established trends that have already manifested.
- Address sexuality and identity issues for older adults by creating space for emancipation from historical traumas around sexual identity.
- Design services and products specifically for the growing super-aged population rather than treating older adults as an afterthought in planning.
- Identify your organization's preferred future for what society looks like with an aging population and work backwards to implement necessary changes today.
- Challenge conventional definitions of young and old in your policies and practices, recognizing these categories are becoming obsolete.