The Manion Lecture: Serving Canada in 2025
Disclaimer: The summaries and interpretations provided on this page are unofficial and have not been reviewed, endorsed, or approved by the Canada School of Public Service (CSPS).
Summary
- The Manion Lecture is an annual distinguished event at the Canada School of Public Service that has been running for over 30 years, offering federal public service leaders the opportunity to engage with eminent speakers who challenge the status quo and broaden perspectives on public administration.
- Jocelyne Bourgon, former Clerk of the Privy Council, delivered the 2025 Manion Lecture after having shaped key moments in Canadian history through her leadership during the Charlottetown negotiations, leading public service reform, and her international work with the OECD, CAPAM, and the United Nations.
- Governments worldwide are facing a convergence of existential threats that interact with each other, making the role of government increasingly challenging, including climate change as an unresolved threat from previous generations, ongoing pandemic risks, and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, bioengineering, and geoengineering.
- Serving in the second quarter of the 21st century means working in a more dangerous world at a more challenging time, during the most profound geopolitical realignment in our lifetime, which creates both uncertainty and the greatest potential for innovation and invention.
- The post-World War II consensus that progress and peace could be achieved through common norms, rules, and institutions led to the creation of the United Nations, Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and World Trade Organization, which together acted as a protective shield for decades.
- These international conventions and institutions, while never amounting to a complete international system or being universally accepted, were sufficiently respected to influence country behavior, with the principle of territorial integrity reducing invasion risks and rule-based global trade contributing to prosperity and reduced conflict.
- Countries like Canada with governance systems combining democracy, rule of law, market economy, and social safety nets performed better than all other governance regimes throughout the 20th century, benefiting from the longest period of growth and peace in modern history.
- The protective shield of international institutions is breaking down, with trade liberalism moving in reverse and protectionism rising, but remarkably the system is falling apart not because of its opponents but because of actions taken by its main architect, the United States.
- Europe is discovering its dependence on the United States makes it vulnerable and may need to defend Ukraine alone, with ripple effects including Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan having less reason to trust US security guarantees, Taiwan’s position opposite China being weakened, and African countries moving closer to China as US aid diminishes.
- The US administration has initiated a pivot on trade based on the view that free trade under international rules no longer serves its interests, treating access to the US market as a privilege that can be monetized, which has led Canada to discover its market dependence can be weaponized.
- The world has learned and will not forget that the United States is an unreliable and potentially hostile partner when that serves its purpose, and despite attempts to appease and restore stability through various twists and turns, the world will ultimately be reconfigured with Canada needing to be part of that reconfiguration.
- The current situation is not merely a trade issue, not a short-term problem, and not an aberration, as American isolationist and protectionist trends took shape under previous administrations and will continue under future ones, making it a colossal mistake for Canada to try buying time hoping the situation will pass.
- Canada must work with the United States when mutually beneficial, work around it when serving Canadian interests, and work with others to protect sovereignty, as the country is already exposed to economic, political, and psychological warfare, particularly vulnerable to technological warfare, with risks of mischief to undermine Canadian unity being the greatest threat.
- In asymmetrical relationships like the one between the United States and Canada, the smaller player does not have the upper hand and must be smarter by playing its own long game, which Canada is capable of doing.
- The election campaign revealed strong consensus on several fronts including reducing interprovincial barriers, opening up to the global market, and Arctic security, providing a foundation for addressing key challenges.
- The Government of Canada will need to identify key interventions to help regain economic sovereignty in coming weeks and months, with public servants having front-row seats to discussions that will lead to the first Speech from the Throne and budget.
- Current circumstances offer an opportunity to accelerate changes that were needed anyway and address issues that predecessors could not resolve, following the principle of never letting a crisis go to waste.
- Canada’s economic position has been declining for decades, having been the seventh largest economy when joining the G7 forum in 1976 but now ranking 10th overall after being overtaken by South Korea, 19th in GDP per capita, and 30th in purchasing power parity with a downward trend since the mid-1980s.
- Canada’s economic problems are not the result of government actions over just the past 10 years but have had a long incubation period, indicating systemic challenges that require comprehensive approaches.
- Ensuring Canada’s future prosperity requires generating products and services the world needs on terms the world will accept, requiring fundamental shifts in economic strategy and capabilities.
Actionable Advice
- Work with the United States when it is mutually beneficial, recognizing that cooperation remains valuable in areas of shared interest despite broader geopolitical tensions.
- Work around the United States when it serves Canada's interests, developing alternative strategies and partnerships that reduce dependence on the American relationship.
- Work with other countries to protect Canadian sovereignty, building coalitions and relationships that strengthen Canada's position in a reconfigured global order.
- Identify key interventions that will help Canada regain economic sovereignty in the coming weeks and months, focusing on concrete measures that reduce vulnerability to external pressure.
- Accelerate changes that were needed in any event, using the current crisis as an opportunity to implement reforms that have been delayed or blocked in normal circumstances.
- Address issues that previous administrations and public servants were unable to resolve, taking advantage of the urgent context to overcome traditional obstacles to reform.
- Reduce interprovincial trade barriers to strengthen Canada's internal economic integration and create a more unified domestic market.
- Open up to global markets beyond the United States to diversify trade relationships and reduce dependence on a single partner.
- Strengthen Arctic security to protect Canadian sovereignty in a region of increasing geopolitical importance.
- Generate products and services that the world needs on terms the world will accept, focusing on competitiveness and meeting genuine international demand.
- Prepare for discussions with ministers about the first Speech from the Throne and budget with a comprehensive understanding of the geopolitical context and economic challenges.
- Recognize that playing the long game is essential for Canada in its asymmetrical relationship with the United States, requiring strategic patience and smart positioning.
- Protect against economic, political, and psychological warfare by building resilience across multiple dimensions of national security and sovereignty.
- Guard particularly against technological warfare vulnerabilities by strengthening cybersecurity and technological independence.
- Work to prevent mischief aimed at undermining Canadian unity, recognizing this as potentially the greatest threat facing the country.
- Build consensus across political lines on key strategic priorities, leveraging the rare agreement revealed during the election campaign on issues like interprovincial barriers, global market access, and Arctic security.